Potatoes at Foodservice: Monthly Update – December 2020

December 1, 2020

Consumers & Dining Out

• As of November 6, 54% of consumers are very concerned about Coronavirus. Note: this data is post-U.S. election but pre-Pfizer vaccineannouncement.¹

• As of November 6, 44% of consumers definitely avoid eating out, which is an increase since October 28, 2020.¹

• Fifty-two percent of consumers who ordered food from restaurants during the past three months said they would purchase a catered restaurant meal for a social gathering. Another 32% said they would dine at a restaurant on a special occasion.³
• Because the holidays are occurring during a pandemic, consumers were asked how likely they were to use a restaurant in the following ways:¹
  • Get parts of their holiday meal from a restaurant (26% more likely)
  • Get a holiday meal kit from a restaurant (23% more likely)
  • Have a restaurant prepare and deliver a holiday meal (21% more likely)
• In terms of outdoor seating ideas in the cold winter months, consumers find the following options somewhat to very appealing: ¹
  • Heated patios enclosed by plastic or plexiglass (68%)
  • Cabin/igloo/greenhouse seating (67%)
  • Heated tables (i.e. kotatsu tables) (63%)
  • Dining “cubicles” of tables set off by plexiglass dividers (64%)
    • This option is perceived as the safest
  • Outdoor tables enclosed in tents (58%)
  • Dining “cabanas” with sliding doors, erected from construction kits or repurposed shipping containers (46%)
• Sixty-five percent of consumers are tired of cooking at home, 58% are bored of comfort foods, and 79% are craving something new.²
• Forty-three percent of consumers said “dishes that I can’t easily / don’t really make at home” would make them choose dining out at foodservice.²
• Restaurant foods consumers are most excited for (what people crave the most and favor getting it away from home) are: ²
  1. Chinese Food
  2. Sushi
  3. Soft Serve Ice Cream
  4. Lobster
  5. Pizza
  6. Korean BBQ
• Restaurant foods consumers are least excited for (what people do not really crave and also would rather get from home) are: ²
  1. PB&J Sandwich
  2. Oatmeal
  3. Baked Beans
  4. Hot Tea
  5. Ham and Cheese Sandwich
  6. Casserole

Restaurant Industry

• Despite September and October showing the best same-store-sales growth since the beginning of the pandemic, October represented the first monthly sales decline since the end of the spring lockdowns ― total pandemic losses reached $215 billion through October.⁴

• There have been around 45,000 permanent restaurant closures through September, according to CHD Expert.⁴

Restaurant Trends

• Restaurants in major cities with colder climates, such as Denver, Boston, NYC, and Chicago, are winterizing their menus, service styles, and dining experience to adjust ― including adding heartier dishes and heat-retaining serving vessels.⁶
• Breakfast daypart is looking good for Wendy’s. In the third quarter of 2020 (ending in September), Wendy’s generated 7% of its same-store U.S. sales growth in the morning, achieving the burger chain’s largest quarterly same-store sales increase in more than 15 years. Launching the breakfast daypart on Wendy’s menu in March has been a critical driver of its strong third-quarter performance. ⁹
• Curry is growing on restaurant menus, and potatoes are among the top produce item paired with curry, with 30% of operators featuring potatoes with curry.⁷
• Big on Bowls:
  • According to Technomic, some of the fastest-growing items on U.S. menus are bowl preparations. Comparing the third quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2020, mentions of Mexican bowls increased 61.8%, breakfast bowls rose 21.5%, smoothie bowls grew 15.0%, and beef bowls rose 5.0%. These bowls span across dayparts and feature both sweet and savory flavors. ⁵
  • The launch of Boston Market’s late-night menu at the end of October not only was the chain’s largest menu expansion in years, but also half of the items are bowls, playing into the bowl trend.⁵
  • The versatility of bowls and the fact that they provide comfort and customization fall in line with current macro trends, especially during the pandemic.⁵
• Sustainability and menus:
  • Sustainability is regaining importance after being put on the back burner at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • Chipotle launched a sustainability impact tracker for menu orders that compares the average values of Chipotle ingredients to their counterparts, including less carbon in the atmosphere and gallons of water saved.⁵
    • Just Salad restaurant chain taps into the idea of diet and social responsibility by offering a Climatarian menu that highlights each item’s carbon impact so that consumers can easily choose the most sustainable option. ⁹
    • Panera Bread plans to label its climate-friendly meals, “Cool Food Meals,” in a partnership with World Resources Institute. More than half of the chain’s entrees are Cool Food Meals, including the Chipotle Chicken Avocado Melt, 10 Vegetable Soup, Broccoli Cheddar Soup, and Fuji Apple Chicken Salad.⁵
• Continued growth of virtual restaurant brands:
  • Virtual food halls like C3 (Creating Culinary Communities) allow customers to order from several concepts in one delivery order. This helps serve groups of people, such as college students or office workers, in large buildings so they can maintain their social distance.
  • Applebee’s expanded testing of its delivery-only virtual concept, Neighborhood Wings, to 700 locations, with plans to introduce it to all 1,600 domestic locations by the end of the first quarter of 2021.⁵
  • Red Lobster opened its first-ever ghost kitchen in Chicago’s South Loop area. The delivery-only location will offer meals through Grubhub, DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Postmates.⁵

Potatoes on Menus

• Holiday meal packages:
  • Cowboy Chicken adds ‘Rotisserie Turkey Holiday Package’ with a 10-12 pound rotisserie turkey, twice-baked potatoes, and choice of an additional side, plus stuffing, 12 dinner rolls, and peach cobbler. ⁸
  • IHOP adds ‘Holiday Family Feast’ with eight pancakes and four servings each of hash browns, scrambled eggs, and a choice of bacon or sausage, plus Sweet Milk Mousse, Oreo Cookie Pieces, glazed strawberries, and festive sprinkles for decorating the pancakes.⁸
  • Chevys Fresh Mex promoted a three-course Thanksgiving Meal. The starter was a mixed greens salad; the entree was roasted turkey with mole sauce served with mashed potatoes, green bean casserole, sweet corn tamalito, and cranberry sauce; and dessert was pumpkin pie.⁵
• A nod to the comfort food trend:
  • In September, Cracker Barrel launched a Loaded Baked Potato with whipped butter, sour cream, shredded Colby cheese, topped with bacon pieces and chopped green onion.⁸
  • In August, Denny’s launched the Loaded Potato Chicken Skillet with chicken, red-skinned potatoes, bacon, and broccoli as a base, topped with queso, shredded cheese, and sour cream.⁸
  • An article in Nation’s Restaurant News highlighted several restaurants across the U.S. trying new takes on the classic cheeseburger, many of which are combined with America’s favorite vegetable, the potato. For example, Rel’Lish Burger Lounge in SeaTac Airport launched the cheeseburger cheeseburger soup, where ground meat and cheese are combined in beef stock and topped with fries and pickles. And in May, Carl’s Jr. offered ‘western fries’ seasoned similar to its signature Western Bacon Cheeseburger.
• Cooper’s Hawk Winery and Restaurants created a virtual experience with its “Friends of Cooper’s Hawk” series, where wine club members and famous chefs prepare meals together. The club members receive the same meals in a kit (ready to heat and serve) and dine along. The meal kits have included potato dishes, such as truffled gnocchi and fingerling potatoes.
• Following the path of other burger chains, in September, Coco’s Bakery launched an Impossible Burger using a potato bun.
• Papa John’s in the U.K. tested an “all-day” breakfast pizza featuring ingredients perfect for the British palette, such as baked beans in tomato sauce, bacon and pork sausage, topped with tater drums, mushrooms, and mozzarella cheese.¹⁰

Examples of Potatoes on Menus

K-12 Update⁷

• Depending on the location in the U.S., most K-12 schools are operating differently, impacting how meals are provided to students since many are staying home for remote learning at least part-time.
• Many schools have turned gyms, classrooms, or other areas to serve meals; some schools are repurposing school buses to deliver lunches. Sixty percent of K-12 operators offer curbside pickup.
• Grab-n-go pickup meals are the name of the game. Many operators are including more handheld and/or cold-prepped items, such as wraps or sandwiches, or salads.
• To assist with packaged meals, operators would find it helpful to receive fresh-cut veggies in pre-portioned packs (½ cup, ¾ cup, 1 cup, 1 ½ cup serving sizes). And including spice packs would help encourage kids to eat the veggies packed for them.
• Operators are looking for creative ways to serve veggies; consider build-your-own loaded potatoes or spicy potato wedges within a pre-packaged meal.
• Many operators now offer “Family Dinners”, which are ready-made meals for four, including an entrée with vegetables and full-size salad. With the holidays upon us, many meals include holiday-themed meals packed in larger portions in order to sell to families with students.

Potato Volume at Foodservice for July 2019 – June 2020¹¹

• Overall, potato volume is down by more than 1.6 billion, and dollars are down by almost $1 billion from July 2019 to June 2020.
  • Limited-service restaurants (LSR) represent the largest share of foodservice potato volume (46% of potato volume) and have been less impacted by the pandemic as off-premise orientation has been a differentiating factor.
  • In terms of volume loss, the greatest amount has come from the full-service restaurant (FSR) market, where 804 million pounds were lost in fiscal 2020 compared to fiscal 2019 (-17%). The FSR segment has been significantly impacted by COVID-19 starting in March 2020 as dine-in closures and capacity restrictions have constricted overall sales significantly in the segment.
  • Business and industry (B&I) is down due to a shift to working at home for many white-collar workers (-25% YOY).
  • Education (i.e., colleges and K-12 schools) is impacted by a shift to virtual learning (-46% YOY).
  • Travel and leisure is down due to consumer reluctance to travel and a significant downward trend in business travel. Additionally, many recreation venues were closed or operating at reduced capacity starting in March (-22% YOY).
  • Volume loss within hospitals (or healthcare) due to visitation restrictions were somewhat offset by consistent volume in senior living and nursing homes (+1% YOY).
  • Retail hosts (i.e., supermarket foodservice and c-stores) were less affected due to destination occasions (+3% YOY).

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¹ Datassential COVID-19 Report 40: Winter Is Coming. Published 11/13/20
² Datassential FLAVOR. Exclusive to Potatoes USA, reach out for more information.
³ National Restaurant Association article. “Gobble up great ideas for Thanksgiving to-go”. Published 11/05/20.
⁴ National Restaurant Association article. “Restaurant sales recovery stalled in October”. Published 11/17/20.
⁵ Technomic Foodservice Digest – November 2020. Exclusive to Potatoes USA through Technomic Ignite platform, reach out for more information.
⁶ Restaurant Business article. “Restaurants winterize menus and service to adapt to chilly outdoor dining”. Published 11/07/20.
⁷ United Fresh – Fresh Insights for Foodservice – Fall 2020. Exclusive to Potatoes USA through United Fresh membership, reach out for more information.
⁸ Datassential SCORES. Exclusive to Potatoes USA, reach out for more information.
⁹ Technomic Industry Insights 11-16-20. Exclusive to Potatoes USA through Technomic Ignite platform, reach out for more information.
¹⁰ Technomic Global Foodservice Navigator Program and restaurantbusinessonline.com. Published 11/09/20.
¹¹ Potato Volumetric Report conducted by Technomic. To be released soon.